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Alternative Analysis - W.D.Gann

 

TOPIC CONTENTS

1. Who was W.D.Gann?
2. Gann articles.
3. Gann theory overview.
4. The basics of Gann theory.
5. Constructing a Gann chart.
6. Gann software and book recommendations.

W.D.Gann is renowned around the world as one of the greatest traders who ever lived. Many traders follow his teachings and practice his stock analysis methods in the hope of predicting market turns with a high degree of accuracy. In the world of stock market analysis the life and methods of W.D.Gann is legendary.

His trading record in commodity and stock markets was around 90% with his trading profits estimated to be around $50 million dollars. This was during the first half of the 20th century. If we equate this to figures today it would be around $500 million.

William Delbert Gann started trading in commodity and stock markets around 1902. His astonishing trading record and style centered around the basis of time rather than price, this basis gave Gann a method by which he could accurately predict when a trend change was imminent, but also to determine the perfect price to enter or exit a trade.

Read on to learn more about this alternative analysis method.


 
    Who was W.D.Gann?  

 

 

William Delbert Gann (1878 - 1955) was born in Lufkin, Texas. His trading life began in 1902 and in 1908 he moved to New York to open his own brokerage firm W.D.Gann & Co.

After spending many decades trading in both commodity and stock markets he moved to Florida where he continued to write books up until he died in 1955.

One of the most important concepts that Gann included in this analysis was the concept of time. The use of natural law and geometric proportions based on the circle, square and triangle were the basis for his analysis methods. His remarkable ability to predict market turning points was evident when he predicted the 1929 stock market crash one year before it actually happened.

Other interesting feats achieved during the life of W.D.Gann was his ability to prove his abilities in front of others. In the presence of representatives of a major financial publication Gann made 286 trades within 25 trading days. Of those 286 trades an amazing 264 trades were profitable.

 

 

"I once saw him take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000. He can compound money faster
than any man I ever met."

Quote from Ticker & Investment Digest
Vol 5 December 1909
Describing W.D.Gann

 

 
 
Click here to download PDF article
Reprint - Ticker & Investment Digest, Vol 5 December 1909, No 2 (28KB)  

 

 

Author:

Unknown
Date: December 1909
Synopsis: The following article appeared in the December 1909 edition of The Ticker and Investment Digest. It is a good article covering the workings of Gann from an era in which Gann was actively trading.
Complexity: Beginner
 
 
 
Click here to download PDF article
Outlook for 1929 (287KB)  

 

 

Author:

W.D.Gann
Date: November 1928
Synopsis: Read the actual outlook report for 1929 as written by W.D.Gann himself.
Complexity: Advanced
 
 
 
Click here to download PDF article
Reprint - Morning Telegraph, December 1922 (15KB)  

 

 

Author:

Arthur Angy
Date: December 1922
Synopsis: Interesting article detailing the way Gann predicted the top of a bull market more than one year in advance.
Complexity: Beginner
 
 
 
Click here to download PDF article
Rediscovering Gann's Law of Vibration (4095KB)  

 

 

Author:

James Smithson
Date: N/A
Synopsis: This paper seeks to rediscover Gann's Law of Vibration.
Complexity: Advanced

 
    Gann Theory Overview  

 

 

The methods of analysis employed by Gann can best be described as the study of pattern, price and time and how their relationships affect the market. Gann treated these as the most important aspects which influenced the future movements of any market.

The main focus of Gann theory is to understand that at various times, different aspects will influence the market. For example, a pattern may have a large influence on the market while at another time it will be price and time that will provide a dominating force on the market. Understanding these relationships is the key to trading with more success using Gann theory.

Gann theory tries to identify the best combinations of price, pattern and time to initiate successful trades. It is true that trades may be signaled by each element individually. A trader who places too much emphasis on only a single aspect may experience less success than a trader who patiently waits for the best combination of all three aspects, being price, pattern and time.

     

 
    The Basics of Gann Theory  

 

 

Mathematics
Gann was an outstanding mathematician, he had a love of numbers and number theory. It is often said that Gann theory revolves around natural law and mathematics.

Gann used various numbers throughout his trading analysis, these numbers had a dominant place amongst his trading methods. For example the square of numbers was a very important set of numbers for Gann, in particular the numbers 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 121 and 144. He believed that the market moved in patterns which were sensitive to the price movement of these squares. As an application example he would have used these numbers to determine that a specific rally may find resistance 64 cents or 64 days from the bottom.

Key Numbers
Gann also liked certain key numbers. The numbers which Gann favoured had significance in other areas. For example Gann liked the number 12 which also has biblical(12 disciples) and astrological (12 houses of the zodiac) merit. Other numbers which Gann liked included 3.5, 144 and 365.

Charts
As mentioned earlier, the method of analysis employed by Gann involved price, pattern and time. Central to this is special charts called "swing-charts". The construction of a swing-chart is central to Gann analysis as it uses a correct scale between price and time which allows the analyst to properly calculate angles and thus make accurate predictions.

It is vitally important that the scale between price and time is set correctly. Price and time in a Gann-format chart needs to be in 1:1 scale, or an equal number of squares in the grid up and to the right. A line drawn diagonally from one corner of the grid to the other will produce a perfect 45 degree angle.

     

 
    Constructing a Gann Chart  

 

 

Gann used special charts called swing-charts to perform his analysis. The first part of the Gann chart is the construction of the price plot.

Gann Price Plot Example

You can see from the picture above the way Gann plotted price data on a swing-chart. This price plot includes all the parameters of price (open, high, low and close) and is the traditional method which Gann plotted price action on his charts.

This forms the foundation for Gann charts. It is advisable to plot charts in multiple time frames (daily, monthly etc) as markets can display swings in various time frames, an analyst needs to be able to identify these swings by using the correct time frame chart.

Following on from the price plot, Gann constructed a swing-chart by drawing additional lines on the chart which represented the up and down movement of the security. The swing-chart lines are drawn over the top of the existing price plot and are used to remove undue noise from the securities price movement.

Construction of the Swing-Chart
The first type of swing-chart that can be constructed is the one-bar swing-chart, this chart is also known as the minor swing-chart. The technique is simple, a trend line is drawn from each individual price plot to indicate the trend of the security, this is shown in the picture below.

Gann Minor Swing Chart

As shown in the picture above is a minor swing-chart. A trend line is drawn from each price bar to the next, the destination of the trend line is significant if the price makes a higher high or a lower low. If the price bar does not make a new high or low the trend line continues in the same direction terminating at the same point of the next bar.

A higher high will result in a green trend line being drawn to the high of the bar and a lower low results in a red trend line being drawn to the low of the bar. This is the basis of the swing-chart as constructed by Gann.

Swing-charts can be drawn for all time scales, what has been shown here is the simplest form of swing-chart.

     

 
    Gann Software & Book Recommendations  

 

 

Gann wrote many books during his lifetime which have been used by analysts to try and identify the exact way he performed his analysis. His books remain as the only instructional mediums which indicate his exact analysis technique. The books written by Gann include:

- 45 Years in Wall Street
- How to Make Profits in Commodities
- Truth of the Stock Tape and Wall Street Stock Selector
- The New Stock Trend Detector
- Tunnel Thru the Air
- The Magic Word

For recommendations of suitable Gann compliant charting software please read our review of Gannalyst.


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